Texas Holdem Flop Odds and How Different Hands Fare vs. Each Other on the Flop

I was playing around a bit with some equity calculators (resource links at the bottom) and I thought about writing something on how different hands do vs. each other. Basically texas holdem flop odds in a nutshell. All these examples are of two hands getting it all-in on the flop and how much equity they have on the flop (how often a hand will win or how many % of the pot that belongs to each hand).

Pocket Aces vs. Royal Flush Draw

Starting with some of the big hitters right away. Usually when decent hold’em players get the money in on the flop they’ll both have pretty big hands like combo draws (for example; a flush draw with overcards).

Let us say you have a hand like A A vs. K J.

You raise it up to a standard 3 or 4 big blinds with your pocket aces and get a call from the blinds by the dude holding KJ of hearts.

Now the flop comes down A T 3.

You both get it all-in on the flop (as you should). What are your equities?

You with your A A are about 66.162% to win this pot. This means that you will win around 66.16% in the long run.

And by now you’ve probably figured that the guy with K J is 33.838% to win.

Did you expect to lose 1 time out of 3 with top set? Pretty interesting if you haven’t done these calculations before. It helps you cope with getting outdrawn when you know that you will lose about 34% of the time here.

Bottom Set vs. Straight Flush Draw

Lets get right to it.

You have 5 5 and you’re up against Q J.

On a flop of T 9 5 .

And again you both get it all-in. What is your equity vs. the straight flush draw? You are only 57.879% to win with your bottom set, so it is very close to a coinflip! Let us do one more and let’s make it a common one.

Big Pocket Pair vs. Flush Draw

This is a very common occurrence in the online no-limit texas hold’em games I play in. Do you know how likely you are to win when you have pocket aces all-in vs. a flush draw on the flop? Let us find out!

If you have K K vs. 6 5.

And the flop is J 2 9.

And guess what… You both get it all-in on the flop

Your equity with pocket kings is 61.62%. So the suited connector will still win 38.38% of the time, that’s over one third of the time!

Pretty crazy huh?

I hope you found this post enlightening because it really goes to show you that in some spots you really aren’t going to win as often as you think you are.

The tools I used for all the calculations can be found online for free. Here are the links:

Poker Stove – This is a free downloadable software which is specifically designed for hold’em and it helps you determine your equity in all-in pots (like I did in this post).

Two Dimes – This calculator is a free online script. It comes in handy if you play other games than hold’em. Games like Omaha, Stud, Razz and Lowball.