Some brain food for you guys who do not really like making “loose” call downs.
I sat down at the table because of one player who plays about 65% of his hands pre-flop and raises 7% of these. He was the reason I was at this 6-max online game.
A few orbits go by and I have time to observe a few of his habits, although my reads are not rock-solid. He is often betting with nothing when checked to on multiple streets.
Then I receive a playable hand, Q J one off the cut-off (a.k.a MP or UTG+1) and decide to raise because I want to play pots against this guy.
Sure enough he calls on the button and everyone else folds.
The flop comes down KQ 8 and I decide to check it right away. Normally I would bet here because he calls with a wide range but I had seen him bluff when checked to. That meant he would bet almost all of his range here when I check to him and represent weakness.
He bets about 2/3rds of the pot and I call.
The turn comes K. A harmless card, no draws got there and it makes it less likely that he has a King. I check again, he bets 1/2 pot after thinking for 3 seconds and I call.
River brings 9 which completes a straight draw for a hand like JT but I am pretty sure about calling unless he does something crazy like shoves all-in. I check and he thinks until his timer has run down and bets a weird amount which amounts to about 1/2 pot.
Right here I am thinking about his range and how often I have to be good. When someone bets full pot and you have to call, you have to be good about 33% of the time.
The math goes something like this: If the pot is $100 and your opponent bets $100. The pot is $200 now (pot $100 and his bet $100 = $200) and you have to call $100, so add that in there and you have $300. Now take the amount you have to call ($100) and divide it by the pot + his bet + your call.
You get $100 / $100+$100+$100 = 0.33333 which means that you have to be good 33% of the time.
And when when someone bets 1/2 pot the same formula applies. For example someone bets $50 into $100, you have to call $50. This means $50 / $100+$50+$50 = 0.25 which means that you have to be good 25% of the time.
So my opponent bet a bit under 1/2 pot and I had to be good about 23-24% of the time. Considering that he could very well have a random hand, a missed flush draw or even a worse queen. I concluded that I would easily be good around 25% of the time and I called.
He flips up 65 for 6 high and I take the pot.
In spots like this versus opponents like this I like to call because my hand is easily good 23-24% of the time. You can make equity and hand range calculation yourself with PokerStove.
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