Thinking Ahead - Revisited

I’m in San Diego at the moment, just finishing up a long weekend of live poker - it’s been an exciting trip and I played in some quite big games - I’ll discuss hands from the trip on Monday’s post(Edit: Tuesday’s - Henri is going to post Monday), so stay tuned. :-)

For now, there have been some questions about hand two from the “Thinking Ahead” post from a few days ago so I figured it was worth a little more discussion.

Here’s the hand again:

Hand 2, getting value:

.50/1.00 NL, hero has $100 and villain has $25

Folded to hero on the cutoff whe raises to $3 with JhJd. The villain on the button, an unknown shortstack, calls.

Flop: Td 8d 7c (pot: $7.50)

In the actual hand, the villain raised and we set him allin. One question was “what if my opponent doesn’t raise me?” This is worth addressing - while many shortstacks are raise-happy sometimes you will get a call. Lets see what happens when our opponent calls.

Hero bets full pot ($7.50), and villain calls ($7.50).

Turn: (Td 8d 7c) Kh (pot $22.50)

Each of us has put in $10.50 at this point, so our opponent has $14.50 remaining. While we do not love the king, it is relatively unlikely to have changed the relative hand values - if our opponent has KT, K8, K7 or a Kx flush draw he is now ahead, but that is a relatively small portion of his range. So, we continue with the plan and bet the remaining $14.50, a little more than half pot. Many pairs, and any sort of draw, or pair and draw, will often call.

Note that with Jacks the only real “bad” card is a 6, since a 9 gives us a straight and a J gives us a set - with so little money left we don’t mind getting the rest in with top set on the turn if we spike.

Alternative lines become more attractive the deeper the stacks get. Once we are no longer happy with making a big pot then betting aggressively may become counterproductive. If we each had $400 behind, a flop pot bet will get us into very tough spots out of position on the turn and river, so betting small or checking can be good alternatives. Stack size is a critical piece of the puzzle, and can completely change the “best” play while the cards and the board stays the same.

Remember, thinking about how big a pot you want is just a guide, it helps you plan ahead about what you want to accomplish in a hand. No-limit hold’em is a complex game and there are many factors to consider, this is another tool to aid the decision-making process.